Deposit Insurance During EU Accession

The paper presents a brief review of the systems of deposit insurance in accession countries, comparing their level of harmonization with the perspective of their EU integration. Studying the different practices of deposit insurance in the context of developing financial safety nets in future Europe we have found that: (i) there is overinsurance of deposits in accession countries, and (ii) that this could lead to increasing moral hazard, incentives deformation and increasing costs of banking intermediation in the whole euro area.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40003/3/wp617.pd

Dual Inflation Under the Currency Board: The Challenges of Bulgarian EU Accession

The importance of analysing inflation sources and dynamics in Bulgaria is imposed by (i) the long run process of price and inflation convergence to the Euro area and (ii) by the Currency Board operating in the country. In this study we make an attempt to estimate Balassa - Samuelson (BS) effect in Bulgaria (after the introduction of the Currency Board). The BS explanation of inflation (or dual inflation) has acquired both academic recognition and popularity in practice in the recent years. The results of our empirical estimation do not provide a robust verification of the existence of BS effect in spite of the observed prerequisites and the accompanying economic indicators interrelations. Actually there are several factors that interfere with the BS effect lying in the wage convergence process in both sectors and others that influence productivity developments in the sectors. This prompts that the price movement in the country has other driving motions – above all wage setting and incomplete price liberalization, other factors productivity, imported inflation (pass trough) and inflation generated by the temporary gaps between money demand and money supply.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39872/3/wp487.pd

Dual Inflation Under the Currency Board: The Challenges of Bulgarian EU Accession

The importance of analysing inflation sources and dynamics in Bulgaria is imposed by (i) the long run process of price and inflation convergence to the Euro area and (ii) by the Currency Board operating in the country. In this study we make an attempt to estimate Balassa - Samuelson (BS) effect in Bulgaria (after the introduction of the Currency Board). The BS explanation of inflation (or dual inflation) has acquired both academic recognition and popularity in practice in the recent years. The results of our empirical estimation do not provide a robust verification of the existence of BS effect in spite of the observed prerequisites and the accompanying economic indicators interrelations. Actually there are several factors that interfere with the BS effect lying in the wage convergence process in both sectors and others that influence productivity developments in the sectors. This prompts that the price movement in the country has other driving motions – above all wage setting and incomplete price liberalization, other factors productivity, imported inflation (pass trough) and inflation generated by the temporary gaps between money demand and money supply.inflation, currency board, EU accession, Bulgaria

Financial stability, monetary autonomy and fiscal interference: Bulgaria in search of its way, 1879-1913

The Bulgarian monetary system was established, immediately after independence. Having experienced it already under Ottoman rule, newly independent Bulgaria adopted the bimetallic standard. Without being a member of the Latin Monetary Union, it tried broadly to follow the principles of the convention, yet with some exceptions, the most important of which concerned the limit on silver coinage. The absence of such a clause in Bulgaria turned out to be crucial since the financial needs of the recently established state triggered excessive silver coinage which resulted in a persistent agio - a positive and variable difference between the legal and the commercial value of silver coins. The interference of fiscal authorities obstructed the Bulgarian National Bank's ability to manage money in circulation and to secure the monetary stability required by economic development). The attempts of the Bulgarian monetary authorities to eliminate the agio were unsuccessful until they acquired the right to issue silver-backed banknotes. Soon after that, in 1906, Bulgaria introduced a short-lived typical Gold standard.financial stability, monetary autonomy, fiscal interference, Bulgaria

Deposit Insurance During EU Accession

The paper presents a brief review of the systems of deposit insurance in accession countries, comparing their level of harmonization with the perspective of their EU integration. Studying the different practices of deposit insurance in the context of developing financial safety nets in future Europe we have found that: (i) there is overinsurance of deposits in accession countries, and (ii) that this could lead to increasing moral hazard, incentives deformation and increasing costs of banking intermediation in the whole euro area.deposits insurance, financial regulation, accession countries

Exchange Rate and Inflation: France and Bulgaria in the Interwar Period

The objective of this paper is twofold. First, to compare the model of financial stabilization in the interwar period in France (a country in the “core”) with that in Bulgaria (a peripheral country). Second, applying modern econometric techniques (VAR models) we would like to “test “whether the theory designating a dominant role of the exchange rate on inflation (in comparison to that of money in circulation) holds and can be empirically proved by the actual movement of the monetary variables and the direction of their causality. Going back to the history of stabilization in France and Bulgaria in the interwar period and studying it through the theoretical ideas at the beginning of the XX century would provide us not only with new elements in the analysis of the present-day problems of monetary stabilizations but also add to the arguments of the crucial significance of the exchange rate and monetary rules for the efficiency and credibility of the monetary regime.economic history, modeling, France, Bulgaria

Assessing Market Expectations on Exchange Rates and Inflation: A Pilot Forecasting System for Bulgaria

Econometric forecasting models typically perform bad in volatile environments as they are often present in economies in transition. Since forecasts of key macroeconomic variable are inevitable as guidelines for economic policy, one might alternatively make attempts at measuring market participants’ expectations or conduct surveys. However, often financial markets are underdeveloped and regular surveys are unavailable in transition countries. In this paper we propose to conduct experimental stock markets to reveal market participants’ expectations. W? present the results fr?m a series of pilot markets conducted in Bulgaria throughout 2002 indicating that the method could be useful especially for transition countries.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40145/3/wp759.pd

Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Bulgaria: Lessons from the Historical Record

There are two aspects through which an economic policy can influence the economic situation – monetary and fiscal. Monetary and fiscal policies have different and sometimes controversial goals to achieve by means of specific instruments. While the mission of central banks is generally price stability, governments usually set their goals in the realm of economic growth and employment. Fiscal institutions , however, often use inflation in order to derive revenues (seigniorage) and finance budget deficits. Hence, inflation is viewed as a public finance phenomenon (Barro, 1979; Mankiw, 1987; Grilli, 1989). The purpose of this paper is to present a historical perspective on the behaviour of the monetary and fiscal policies pursued in Bulgaria from 1879, when the Bulgarian National Bank was established (soon after the liberation from the Ottoman Empire). Furthermore, historical time series of monetary and fiscal indicators give us the chance to study the link between government budget problems, fluctuations of monetary variables and inflation dynamics in different monetary episodes.monetary and fiscal policy, inflation, exchange rate

Assessing Market Expectations on Exchange Rates and Inflation: A Pilot Forecasting System for Bulgaria

Econometric forecasting models typically perform bad in volatile environments as they are often present in economies in transition. Since forecasts of key macroeconomic variable are inevitable as guidelines for economic policy, one might alternatively make attempts at measuring market participants’ expectations or conduct surveys. However, often financial markets are underdeveloped and regular surveys are unavailable in transition countries. In this paper we propose to conduct experimental stock markets to reveal market participants’ expectations. W? present the results fr?m a series of pilot markets conducted in Bulgaria throughout 2002 indicating that the method could be useful especially for transition countries.forecasting, macroeconomics, inflation, exchange rates, experimental stock markets

Exchange Control in Italy and Bulgaria in the Interwar Period: History and Perspectives

This paper analyses exchange rate control measures adopted in Italy and Bulgaria during the interwar period. The first two sections provide a detailed account of the institutional and economic framework in which these measures were enforced and interpret them utilizing statistical data. In the third section it suggests a theoretical interpretation of exchange control and clearing agreements stressing that these policies were a serious interference in market mechanisms. A further point is that exchange control introduced and practiced in Italy and Bulgaria was an eloquent example of how serious the balance of payments constraint was at that time and how difficult it was to circumvent it. In the last section it derives some lessons for today’s Italian and Bulgarian economies.Exchange control, Clearing agreements, International monetary relations